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Applying a precise forecasting method is necessary to achieve acceptable results in IPM programs. Performances of the wing and delta pheromone traps for forecasting the codling moth phenology were compared with physiological time data based on Degree-Hours. Six pheromone traps (three wing and three delta style) were applied for the monitoring of the codling moth population. Traps were placed in an apple orchard in Tehran Province, Damavand region by the start of bloom. All traps were checked every week and the number of moths caught was recorded. Physiological time was estimated by using hourly recoded temperature, considering temperature thresholds for codling moth development. The results showed that the delta style traps statistically caught more male moth than wing traps. It was also shown that the results of the pheromone traps data were affected severely by weather conditions. Moreover, false fluctuations in recorded data from pheromone traps made some false population peaks, the interpretation of which was very hard. On the other hand, forecasting model based on the physiological time data, was not affected by the mentioned conditions and its results was easy to use for determination of the pest phenology without further interpretations.  

Keywords: Cydia pomonella, forecasting model, pheromone, tarp, population

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